A report published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicts a dramatic swing toward Eurosceptic, populist and right-wing parties in the upcoming European elections, with mainstream groups ceding seats to radical alternatives.
The study, commissioned by the think tank and conducted by political scientists and pollsters Simon Hix and Dr. Kevin Cunningham, is based on the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections.
Findings suggest the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID) will end up with 100 seats (a 40-seat increase), placing them as the third-biggest party in Parliament. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) – of which the Brothers of Italy and Flemish N-VA are a part – are set to make gains too (from 71 to 85 seats).
While anti-European parties top the polls in nine Member States and finish second or third in nine other countries, the two largest parties currently in the Parliament –the European People’s Party (EPP) and Socialists & Democrats (S&D) – will “continue a path of haemorrhaging seats, as in the past two elections.”
